Weather Experts Warn ‘Super El Niño’ Could Bring Storms and Extreme Conditions to the UK

Weather experts are warning that a rare super El Niño could develop later this year, potentially bringing storms, heavy rainfall and unseasonably warm spells to the UK.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon caused by warmer‑than‑average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. These temperature rises disrupt global weather patterns and can lead to extreme conditions around the world.

A super El Niño occurs when ocean temperatures rise by at least 2°C, making it far more intense than a standard El Niño. Only five super El Niños have been recorded since 1950, with the last one occurring in 2015–16.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 25% chance that this year’s developing El Niño could intensify into a super event by autumn or early winter.

AccuWeather forecasters say that while El Niño is not a storm itself, it acts as a powerful climate driver that increases the likelihood of certain weather patterns. For the UK, this could mean a higher risk of impactful storms later in the year, as well as swings between warm spells and periods of heavy rain.

El Niño can also influence storm tracks across the Atlantic, potentially affecting how and where winter storms form.

Globally, a strong or super El Niño can lead to:

• Drier conditions in parts of Africa, India, Australia, Indonesia, the Caribbean and South America  

• Increased wind shear in the Atlantic, which can suppress hurricanes  

• A stronger southern jet stream during winter  

• A likely spike in global temperatures  

Experts say the global temperature impact may not peak immediately. While El Niño is expected to develop this year, the highest temperature effects may not be felt until 2027.

AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill said confidence is growing that a strong El Niño is on the way: “We will likely see at least a moderate El Niño, but more likely a strong El Niño.”

Uncertainty remains over how intense the event will become, but forecasters agree that its influence on global and UK weather could be significant.

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