Downbeat Labour leader speaks out after dismal poll

Wales' First Minister has admitted she faces the fight of her "political life" in May's Senedd election. A Welsh-specific poll released on Tuesday, January 13, projected Labour would manage to get just eight seats in the election dropping to fourth place in the Welsh Parliament behind Plaid Cymru, Reform UK and the Green Party.

When the polling data is transferred to seats, two different projection methods both show she herself would fail to be elected in the new Ceredigion Penfro seat where she is standing.

Speaking to WalesOnline the day after the latest poll of Welsh voters' was released, she acknowledged she had a fight on her hands.

"I've always stood in marginal seats, this is a very common position for me to be in.

"When I first stood for the Senedd, I found out that I got in sitting in my pyjamas in my own home because I was told I hadn't won [and hadn't gone to the count].

"So this is not unusual for me, to be a position where I have to fight for my political life. I'm happy to do that, I'll continue to do it, it's what I've done all my life.

"I'm up for the fight, I'm up for the challenge and I'm very keen to put our case to the Welsh nation," she said.

When she saw the poll she said she was "obviously disappointed".

"What we are clear about is that we've got a lot of work to do between now and the Senedd elections.

"We've already started by putting out one of our pledges which is to put a cap on of £2 bus fares, we hope to demonstrate that we're in tune with the public that we understand that they're under a bit of pressure, that the cost of living crisis is affecting them, that we can demonstrate that we are continuing to listen to them.

"There are headwinds against us, we understand that.

"I hope though that what this will do is to concentrate people's minds about the challenges ahead if Labour is not in power and I hope that there'll be much more thorough scrutiny on, in particular, Plaid Cymru, in particular their spending commitments, their policy commitments, in a way that we've had for years and years and frankly as opposition parties they've been getting away with a lot for a long time.

"If you aspire to govern you must demonstrate that it's not all about hope, it's actually about practicalities of governing, where are they getting the money from, what are they going to cut, how are they going do it, what's going to be different," she said.

The poll showed a surge in support for the Green Party, and while Plaid fall just short of a majority, the Green Party is a group it could decide to work within a coalition.

Both support Welsh independence.

That is, the First Minister said, a "worry".

"It's a major worry for the country. We've never been in this situation before in Wales and what we know is that are occasions when people may not vote in their own national interest, we've seen that with Brexit.

"People were promised things and they haven't been delivered.

"When there's an offer of independence in an age of extremism, of populism, I think that there's a real danger that people could reach for that.

"The implications for Wales would be extremely dangerous, massive cuts to our public services, massive cuts to pensions. People have to rethink our entire country and in particular our relationship with the United Kingdom," she said.

This election however has new constituencies and a new voting system. Instead of the party with the most votes winning, there will be six people elected from each of the 16 constituencies via a proportional system.

When Labour lost the Caerphilly Senedd by-election, party sources said that a poll part way through the campaign putting Labour in third sealed their fate, because people thought voting for them was a wasted vote.

Asked whether that could happen if polls keep showing similar figures for her party, she said: "I think one of the major challenges we have is to demonstrate to the public that this election is different because of the voting system," she said.

"People in Wales are really sophisticated voters, they know they want to stop Reform. At the moment they're piling in behind Plaid because they're thinking in the same way as a first-past-the-post system.

"That is not the system we have.

"We have a proportional system and that needs to be explained to the public and I hope that means that they will take the opportunity to vote for the party that they have been supporting for many, many years and that they can continue to support because it will be represented proportionately in a way that hasn't happened in the past," she said.